Tim Donaghy, the former NBA referee makes some serious claims in his new book. He claims that refs would purposely tinker with game results, are dishonest, and would even argue about things as small as who should tip the ball boys in the NBA.
At one point in the book Donaghy brings up Dick Bavetta who was a ref in what most fans consider the worst officiated game ever: game 6 of the 2002 western conference finals. Though it’s up for discussion, he makes a very particular allegation against Mr. Bavetta:
“The real reason that I bet the losing team was that I was just about certain they would cover the spread, no matter how badly they played. That is where Dick Bavetta comes into the picture.
From my earliest involvement with Bavetta, I learned that he likes to keep games close, and then when a team gets down by double- digit points, he helps the players save face. He accomplishes this act of mercy by quietly, and frequently, blowing the whistle on the team that’s having the better night. Team fouls suddenly become one-sided between the contestants, and the score begins to tighten up. That’s the way Dick Bavetta referees a game – and everyone in the league knew it.”
Working off of the assumption this was true it should mean that if you bet on underdogs in all the games Bavetta officiated you should have positively cleaned up even with any sports handicapping issues. I’m not saying you would win every game; that would be ridiculous. But the way Donaghy describes it, he made a killing with this betting theory.
What makes me think that Donaghy is not telling the truth is simply because you must hit 52.7 percent of the wagers to makea profit if you are betting with ten cent juice; $110 to get $100. This made me want to dig further, so I looked back over the ten year period prior to Donaghy leaving and discovered something.
During the ten year period there were just two seasons that returned a profitable percent when betting on the underdogs in games where Bavetta was working. These two seaons were 1998/1999 when the underdogs came back at 55.7% and 2001/2002 when they made it to 57.1. This isn’t bad, but remember these were the only two seasons that returned at least 52.7%. Actually, if you made bets based on this theory, you would have lost a great deal of money in nearly every other basketball season.
I believe this small study destroys the ‘Bavetta Theory’ presented by Donaghy and calls into query the truth of his additional statements. I am not saying the NBA ought to be held unaccountable, and that the refereeing is extremely poor occasionally, or that you should disregard sports handicapping, however we need to question regardless of whether the remainder of Donaghy’s information is legitimate. If he lied in regards to this, we simply cannot consider his additional claims on face worth either.
Rich Allen is an expert in Sports Handicapping and his Sports Betting Professor Systems have sold over 250,000 units and cover all major sports including horse racing. Download a FREE copy of The Sports Betting Insider’s Guide at: http://richallensports.com/sports-handicapping

July 21, 2010
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